Opinion

Is it time for the Knicks to move on from Julius Randle?

The Knicks have been active this free agency period. If not for this level of activity, the discussion around Julius Randle and his future with the Knicks would be far more in question. Fortunately for him, the media’s attention has been focused elsewhere. But, what is the right move here?

We are considering the variables the Knicks front office will likely consider before making a decision. Let’s review!

Who will make the best team in 2022-23?

The first consideration for the Knicks front office must be team performance. What will be the best path in the Knicks in the 2022-23 season. We can’t forget, the ultimate goal for the organization is to win games and does Julius Randle give them the best opportunity to do that.

The starting 5 for the Knicks as it stands today.

Mitchell Robinson – C
Julius Randle – PF

RJ Barrett – SF
Quentin Grimes – SG
Jalen Brunson – PG

It is a competent starting 5. Should the deal for Donovan Mitchell be done as the league believes, Quentin Grimes will likely need to move to the bench and Obi Toppin will start in the PF position.

The team performance really depends on the Julius Randle that shows up. If the all-star Randle with the chip on his shoulder decides to join us, the argument that the Knicks roster is better without him becomes a difficult one to defend.

Tommy Beer, in his “What’s on Tap with Tommy Beer” Q&A mailbag, shared a great point. “When your team’s most important player refuses to fight on the defensive end and is incredibly inefficient offensively, you’re gonna lose more games than you win.” A fall from 41% to 30.8% from 3 on 5.4 attempts per game and a dismal -9.4 total on/off metric last season, according to basketball reference.

If Julius Randle is going to help the Knicks, he needs to lead with actions and on-court performance. The team offence is centered around him, which then becomes a question of opportunity value, could we get better value with the ball in someone else’s hands.

The addition of a true point guard

The addition of Jalen Brunson gives the Knicks a player that can help facilitate an offense that no longer relies soley on one person. Look for the Knicks to run more pick and roll sets with Mitchell Robinson, taking the ball out of Randle’s hands. This will make the offense less one-dimensional. Defenses will now need to account for multiple threats on the offensive side of the ball. Greater depth and talent on the Knicks roster will force defenses to game plan different looks.

All of this said, a lot of the answer to this question lands on the shoulders of Randle himself. If he cannot return to 2020-21 form (perhaps an unrealistic expectation), it is likely the team performance will suffer.

Return for Julius Randle

Many trade rumors are floating around for Julius Randle. The trade with the most traction is a deal around Julius Randle to LA in exchange for Russell Westbrook and first round pick.

For the Knicks, the benefit is removing the Randle handcuff. Westbrook is in the final year of his deal, while Randle has a player option in 2025. He will become an unrestricted free agent in 2026, in a deal worth $117 million for 4 years according to Sportrac. This deal also opens the door for Obi Toppin to increase his playing time.

If the front office agrees that Randle will continue to be a negative impact, then this is deal certainly worth considering. Gaining a first round pick and allowing younger talent an opportunity in a big win for the Knicks. It will be a win win for both sides!

These are some other rumored deals for Julius Randle.

Randle heading to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Kelly Oubre, Mason Plumlee, and the 2023 first-round pick (from Denver via Charlotte) – Sports Illustrated

Rise of Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin is a big reason for the conversation surrounding Julius Randle trade talks. The fans have made their voices heard and want to see Toppin given the keys.

There are many comparing the end of season productivity of Toppin and Randle. Let’s compare the tale of the tape!

Obi Toppin vs Julius Randle in April

A breakdown of April productivity of Obi Toppin and Julius Randle at their peak.

	Julius Randle 20-21	Obi Toppin 21-22
Points	27.1	27.2
FG%	43.4%	55%
Rebs	8.1	6.2
3PTs	2.9	3.8
3PT%	41%	46%
Asts	6.3	2.8

As looking into these numbers, I was surprised to see how they compared. Obi Toppin was extraordinary during April! After seeing the head to head, you understand the fans perspective. Toppin has a contract on the horizon. Let’s see what we have – is this real?

Some important points to remember. Julius Randle led his team to a 4 seed in the East. He was the reason the Knicks broke a playoff drought, dating back to 2013. It can also be dangerous to compare games that matter to those that do not.

We can’t expect this level of production from Toppin should he take the starting postion. The Knicks will have far more weapons, giving Toppin less opportunity to produce. Having said that, this should translate into efficiency, better shot selection and better win output for the Knicks. You can see our complete comparison between Randle and Toppin, here.

Julius Randle’s Relationship with Fans

Julius Randle’s relationship with the fans has deteriorated. During a recent pro-am game, Randle was booed by the local NYC fans and has become a relationship that feels beyond repair at this point.

We all remember this moment. The moment when Randle gave the thumbs down to the garden crowd after they cheered.

Julius Randle gives New York Knicks fans the thumbs down gesture during game.

The tension between the two sides continues to mount. It will be a significant risk next season to count on a repair. Ultimately, time heals all wounds and his performance on the court will determine the outcome. Should Randle get off to a rocky start to the season, you will see the New York fans hold nothing back. This will only ensure a messy break up. A factor the Knicks front office must consider.

Ability to Pair with RJ and Donovan Mitchell?

The final consideration is the future of the franchise. RJ is the franchise player. Donovan Mitchell will join him should he come to New York. Julius Randle is not that guy.

At now 27 years, Randle is by no means old, but if he is not the future, do you want such a high usage player, with a coach that will play him 38+ mins a game, in the way of RJ and potentially Donovan? And, can he stomach the thought of being the third option on this Knicks team.

Julius Randle is a proud and quality NBA player. His standing in the league has taken a hit as of late, but there is every opportunity he can regain favor. At this point, the negativity surrounding Randle, both on and off the floor, suggests the Knicks are better to move on from his services. The Knicks young roster requires attention focused elsewhere, and larger decisions must be made to take the team to the next level.