Julius Randle vs Obi Toppin: Comparing Knicks Power Forwards

In this New York Knicks player analysis, we are comparing Julius Randle vs Obi Toppin. There are many calls for Randle to be traded to make way for Obi, but we suspect there hasn’t been a lot of research to fully understand this decision.

There is more to a decision like this than just, “trade him.” With so much talk, we felt a deeper dive into the numbers was warranted.

Our process will include a few areas of focus.

• Player overview
• Comparing career stats
• Obi Toppin vs Julius Randle at their peak
• On / Off Breakdown

With this breakdown we hope to help inform the conversation with numbers.

Player Overview

	Julius Randle	Obi Toppin
Age	27	24
Position	PF/C	PF
Height	6-8	6-9
Weight	205lb	220lb
College	Kentucky	Dayton

These are basic player details just to set the stage. As you can see, both players physical attributes are similar.

Toppin and Randle are closer in age than you might initially think. Whilst Toppin may only have 2 years of NBA experience, he was an older entry to the draft, while Randle on the other hand has 8 years of NBA experience.

When considering age there is not a major difference. On the other hand, there is a significant difference in experience, a point that could be argued as both a positive and a negative. At 24, Toppin has not undergone the rigors that Randle has to this stage. While only 2 years apart, will Randle’s body begin to fall to injury due to his wealth of experience?

Current Contracts

Julius Randle Contract

Julius Randle recently signed a 4 year / $117 million contract in 2021. This includes $106.5 million in guranteed money. He is currently heading into his first year of the deal and scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2026.

As part of his contract he has numerous performance based incentives, including All-star appearances and total games played >= 65.

Obi Toppin Contract

Obi Toppin is still on his rookie contract. He signed a 4 year / $22 million rookie contract, fully guaranteed, in 2020. He is heading into his third year on his current deal, with a club option in his 4th year and no performance incentives. An option the team will likely exercise.

The Knicks are in a difficult position, because Randle’s contract has become difficult to move. His status in the league has taken a hit after his poor 2021-22 season. In addition, Toppin proved more than capable, making his case for more minutes to show he is worthy of a contract extension.

Comparing Randle and Toppin Career Stats

Next in the Julius Randle vs Obi Toppin comparison, we are digging into the career numbers.

This is not the best indicator of true performance, due to experience levels, but here is the comparison nonetheless.

	Julius Randle	Obi Toppin
GP	518	134
Points	17.7	27.2
FG%	47.2%	55%
Rebs	9.3	6.2
Asts	6.3	2.8
PER	17.7	16.3
WS	31.4	5.5

The most basic numbers that stand out to me is Games Played. You can see that Julius Randle is a work horse. He is reliable and consistently contributing over 8 years. Sad to say, but being available is an underrated aspect of the game today.

Comparing Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Player Efficiency Rating (PER): A measure of per-minute production, standardized such that the league average is 15.

Both players are at about the league average for PER. A metric that essentially sums up all the positives aspects of a players performance, subtracts the negatives, and returns a value. This is a strong indicator of real efficiency.

Comparing to LeBron James at the higher end, with a PER of 27.3. Given the similarities in PER, a case can be made for pushing forward with Toppin to see what he can do with more time and a more focused role.

Comparing Win Shares (WS)

Win Shares (WS): An estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.

Win Shares, in this instance, are hard to compare due to time in the league. It is a metric that attempts to divvy up the credit for a win. It is a cumulative statistic, giving an unfair advantage to Randle. However, when comparing Toppin and Randle during the 2021-22 season, Toppin actually comes out on top with 3.9 WS compared to 3.1 for Randle.

The year prior, during Randle’s All-star season, he managed 7.8. This is a number that compares to some of LeBron’s recent seasons.

Julius Randle vs Obi Toppin at their peak in April

A breakdown of April productivity of Obi Toppin vs Julius Randle at their peak. For Randle this is the 2020-21 season, and Toppin this is 2021-22.

	Julius Randle 20-21	Obi Toppin 21-22
Points	27.1	27.2
FG%	43.4%	55%
Rebs	8.1	6.2
3PTs	2.9	3.8
3PT%	41%	46%
Asts	6.3	2.8

After looking into these numbers, we were surprised to see how they compared. Obi Toppin was extraordinary during April 2022!

The head to head at their peak helps understand the impact of both players. Since Julius Randle has spent much of his career as a starter, his number speak for themselves. Toppin requires a little more research.

Let’s have a look at Toppin’s stats when starting.

Obi Toppin stats when starting

Obi Toppin has only started 10 games over his career. This is not a big sample size to work with. While he has played well when he has taken the starting position, there is not enough games under his belt to know if this will be his true production.

	Obi Toppin when starting
GS	10
Points	20.3
FG%	57.1%
Rebs	7.0
3PTs	2.4
3PT%	43.6%
Asts	3.0
Blk	0.7
Stl	0.8
+/-	+47

The numbers that jump off the page have to be his shooting percentages. He has shot the ball incredibly well during his career and as a starter.

These numbers are beginning to look real for Toppin.

On / Off Breakdown

Below is the 2021-22 season on – off court metrics. This metric gives a positive or negative rating of how many points they produced per 100 possessions.

	Team ORtg	Opponent ORtg	Diff ORtg
Julius Randle	-3.8	+5.6	-9.4
Obi Toppin	+4.7	-5.3	+9.9

A quick primer on how this metric works. Simply put, it measures how the player impacts their team offensively, defensively and then the overall impact to their score at the end of the game.

The on / off breakdown highlights the difficulties Randle had during the 21-22 season. It is the polar opposite of Toppin. When Randle was on the floor, the Knicks were 9.4 points worse off, while Toppin gave the Knicks a 9.9 point boost. The on / off metric is great to see the impact the player has on the team overall. It provides an insight into the players contribution to the teams offense, but is also a simple way to determine their impact on team defense. A part of Randle’s game that people criticized.

Summary

This completes our Julius Randle vs Obi Toppin comparison. These numbers above can make the case for Obi Toppin. In some areas, he greatly outperformed Randle. He brings an energy to the team and the New York crowd.

We do need to consider that Toppin has yet to play in the meaningful games that Randle has, but he continues to show why he warrants more time on the floor.